While the relationship between Israel and Turkey has long been a volatile one, with periodic swings in degrees of cooperation and commonality, after Israel’s spectacular degrading of Iran’s military last year and the consequent decline of Iranian influence, things took a sharp turn for the worse. Sensing an opportunity to fill the void and project its influence deep into Israeli-dominated territories and the broader Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey markedly increased its support for Hamas and Hezbollah and has become the primary political patron for each.
In fact, Turkey does not classify either organization as a terrorist group, but rather characterizes them as liberation groups or resistance movements fighting to protect their land. Turkey now serves as a financial hub for both organizations.
So, Israel, together with reportedly behind-the-scenes support from the Saudis, who share a strategic interest in neutralizing any rise in Turkish influence and the power of non-state armed actors, has been employing a multi-front strategy designed to systematically deter Turkish overreach and safeguard national security interests.
And then there is the deep concern many reportedly seem to have for Turkey’s neo-Ottoman empire ambitions.
Thus, Israel has recently sought to block Turkey from high-level Western powers’ planning conferences. Israel successfully lobbied to exclude Turkey from a Doha summit discussing the proposed multinational force for Gaza. Israeli leadership also is reportedly very determined to prevent Turkish military boots on the ground, viewing Ankara as a hostile force.
As the development of the Trump Gaza Peace Plan and its planned International Stabilization Force, designed to demilitarize Gaza, progresses, so far Israel has successfully blocked Turkey’s participation with the argument that a nation housing Hamas leadership and providing it with ideological and financial advice cannot be a neutral arbiter in demilitarizing Gaza.
Of course, for Israel there was a lingering special concern: despite relations being sometimes closer than others, the fact is that Turkey was considered to be in the Muslim world and also a member of NATO with access to Western military and intelligence secrets and strategies.
One special problem for Israel has been the Trump Administration’s current view that Turkey is an asset due to its communication channels with Hamas. This creates a friction point where Israel – and Saudi Arabia – have to work to navigate this minefield. The U.S. should be mindful of the irony of replacing one supporter of terrorism with another.